풍력발전 예보시스템 KIER-Forecaster의 개발
김현구, 이영섭, 장문석, 경남호, 풍력발전 예보시스템 KIER-Forecaster의 개발, 한국신재생에너지학회지, Vol.2, No.2, pp.37-43, 2006, Development of the Wind Power Forecasting System, KIER Forecaster

In this paper, the first forecasting system of wind power generation, KIER Forecaster is presented. KIER Forecaster has been constructed based on statistical models and was trained with wind speed data observed at Gosan Weather Station nearby Walryong Site. Due to short period of measurements at Walryong Site for training the model, Gosan wind data were substituted and transplanted to Walryong Site by using Measure-Correlate-Predict(MCP) technique. The results of One to Three-hour advanced forecasting models are consistent with the measurement at Walryong site. In particular, the multiple regression model by classification of wind speed pattern, which has been developed in this work, shows the best performance comparing with neural network and auto-regressive models.

Key words : Wind Power Generation, Forecasting System, Wind Speed Pattern, Multiple Regression, Measure-Correlate-Predict

김현구: 한국에너지기술연구원 풍력발전연구단
이영섭: 동국대학교 통계학과 교수
장문석: 한국에너지기술연구원 풍력발전연구단장
경남호: 한국풍력기술개발사업단장

KSNRE2-2.pdf
by zzannzini | 2007/08/02 11:23 | 연구논문-풍력발전 | 트랙백 | 덧글(1)
트랙백 주소 : http://zzannzini.egloos.com/tb/466443
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Commented by zzannzini at 2011/01/27 09:30
본 논문은 2006년도 한국신재생에너지학회 춘계학술대회에서 우수논문상을 수상하였습니다.

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